Now that it looks like Donald Trump is well on his way out, I am predicting that a Biden presidency will mean difficult times for India in the short and medium term, geopolitically speaking. After having spent a lot of energy in building a personal equation with Trump, Modi cannot realistically hope to recreate a similar camaraderie with Joe Biden.
Not an exhaustive list but some major points on how the new equation is likely to affect India:
- An emboldened Pakistan will now get louder and more aggressive on Kashmir. Backed by increased US aid by a traditionally sympathetic Democratic administration, ISI will be preparing to renew cross border terrorism against India.
- China will become more aggressive against India, since Biden is not likely to unequivocally support India in the event of border aggression by the PLA against India.
- Increased funding and support for NGOs in India involved in promoting separatism and social unrest. Also increased pressure on the Indian government to relax foreign exchange regulations.
- Increased support and funding of evangelical Christianity in India backed by increasing rhetoric and propaganda about “lack of religious freedom” in India.
- Much more strained and formal diplomatic relationship since Biden will not bond with Modiji in the same manner that Trump did. The US will become more of a paternalistic interfering do-gooder with unwanted advice from time to time than a real strategic ally.
I am not a foreign policy expert but to me India will probably need to become closer to Russia than ever before. The Modi Government will have to take a fresh approach with respect to the US in order to safeguard India’s interests.