What a Biden presidency will mean for India

Now that it looks like Donald Trump is well on his way out, I am predicting that a Biden presidency will mean difficult times for India in the short and medium term, geopolitically speaking. After having spent a lot of energy in building a personal equation with Trump, Modi cannot realistically hope to recreate a similar camaraderie with Joe Biden.

Not an exhaustive list but some major points on how the new equation is likely to affect India:

  • An emboldened Pakistan will now get louder and more aggressive on Kashmir. Backed by increased US aid by a traditionally sympathetic Democratic administration, ISI will be preparing to renew cross border terrorism against India.
  • China will become more aggressive against India, since Biden is not likely to unequivocally support India in the event of border aggression by the PLA against India.
  • Increased funding and support for NGOs in India involved in promoting separatism and social unrest. Also increased pressure on the Indian government to relax foreign exchange regulations.
  • Increased support and funding of evangelical Christianity in India backed by increasing rhetoric and propaganda about “lack of religious freedom” in India.
  • Much more strained and formal diplomatic relationship since Biden will not bond with Modiji in the same manner that Trump did. The US will become more of a paternalistic interfering do-gooder with unwanted advice from time to time than a real strategic ally.

I am not a foreign policy expert but to me India will probably need to become closer to Russia than ever before. The Modi Government will have to take a fresh approach with respect to the US in order to safeguard India’s interests.

10 thoughts on “What a Biden presidency will mean for India”

  1. USA: there may happen some surprises; but barring useful surprises (very improbable) the USA is on its way into irrelevance. So whether in favour or in disfavour of India? . . ?? would not matter much. One can’t go for a condolence to another one who is bereaved, bearing a cadaver on his head. Even self-initiated intimate contact with What bi-Den et al represent would seem de-legitimizing on any sane (or less insane) state.

    Do you think closeness to Russia isn’t closeness to China? Though the 2 nations seriously differ in cultures, geo-political events in recent years seem to have brought ’em close.

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    1. I agree broadly with your point that US will fade into irrelevance, but that will not be happening in the near future. That is why I say short and medium term. In the short and medium term, US will be influential enough since the US Military is likely to remain powerful for some time. US influence will decline significantly in proportion to its military might. In the short and medium term I expect war or war-like situations to arise because of the increased US interference in the Middle East and probably even South Asia.

      I don’t expect Russia to become too close to China because Russia has its own border issues with China. India and Russia can be strategically closer since they have similar kinds of problems with China.

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  2. I said the USA are marching into irrelevance. Why. . .? Because this time is not 1919 or about. Not even 1946!

    The so-called soviets (or Bolsh’viki) were bouncing or springing UP from below; the USA’s “body embalmers” are tumbling DOWN from above.

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    1. In the longer term, the American Empire will fade into insignificance, but it won’t happen in the next ten to twenty years at least. Beyond that, yes. But I am not able to predict that far ahead.

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      1. May be, the Pelosi-sts would become (very) careful. Otherwise, major war is certain in a few years; they ‘re too disconnected from the reality that other nations are growing more and more “iron teeth” too. Not all others are African dollar-fooled, hungry, kleptocracies.

        More prop’ than true, the very powerful and power-hungry USA’s military could be gone almost in a flash!
        Because, when the Chips are down, the quality of the men is what counts.

        E.G. Hizbulah vs Israël.. . .

        It mayn’t be said yet: but India isn’t far less than the USA, military-wise.

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        1. I don’t expect the Leftists to suddenly become careful or thoughtful about their actions regardless of the military might of the Empire. The Empire is likely to double down on Obama-era foreign policy with increasing intensity.

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  3. «I don’t expect
    the Leftists
    to suddenly
    become
    careful or
    thoughtful
    about their
    actions
    regardless of
    the military
    might of the
    Empire.»
    I agree. And this is where the USA’s full death may issue frrom in less than a decade. The emire is already lagging far b’hind its apparent image in real might. In otherwords, it has mighty teeth and mighty noise; but the noise is improportionately large to the teeth. Plus, it is antagonizing its heart and brain — the nordic, cromagnid and dalofælid parts of its population, popularly called White People. My personal question concerning “the empire” now is: How long before the the tanking down of the Chips (immediately available logistics)? Solely dependent on Guns (everywhere the USA or “NATO” passes it leaves blood, mass grave-yards and battered spirit), the empire will be revealed to be of partial (not full) men.
    Some other peoples with mighty teeth but not mighty noise will become visibly more ‘fungible.’.

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  4. «Increased funding
    and support for
    NGOs in India
    involved in
    promoting
    separatism and
    social unrest. Also
    increased pressure
    on the Indian
    government to
    relax foreign
    exchange
    regulations.»
    You’re accurately aware of it! The USA as an entity rarely, if ever funds useful things or infrastructure.
    A few years ago there was an L-G-B-T- parade in Antananarivo.
    A little peeping below the surface of things, and voila: the parade (of ignominy and abomination) was organized by USA’s embassy in Madagasicara. Think of it. Certainly not a priority, not even a remote need, in such a nation.

    «Increased support
    and funding of
    evangelical
    Christianity in India
    backed by
    increasing rhetoric
    and propaganda
    about “lack of
    religious freedom”
    in India.»
    Unless you mean they to use it as a vessel for missionary Globo-Homosexualism. The adharmic agents and agencies apparently in ascendancy in the USA now are vehemently anti-Christian. Anyways, it will happen thru local compradors.

    About 2009, there was an ACIA-funded assembly in Lagos (Nigeria), claiming to be christian, with the usual paraphanalia of christian assembly; but what the preachers insist on betrays them. . .

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    1. While they may be anti-Christian, they definitely ally with Evangelical Christian groups to sow religious tensions in India, being a Hindu majority country. The common theme of the Cathedral here is of course, that the disruptive poor, helpless minorities are all being oppressed by the wicked majority folk (whites/Christians in the West, Hindus in India and so on), who are pure unadulterated evil.

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